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Boats by Brand or Type => Precision => Topic started by: tjspiel on Apr 27, 2023, 08:57 AM

Title: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: tjspiel on Apr 27, 2023, 08:57 AM
I'm sure some of you have already seen this. I only occasionally read the facebook group.

The owner and his wife are safe. He provided a fair amount of detail about what happened though some thing still aren't quite clear to me.

The most shocking thing was how quickly it happened. The owner says that less than a minute elapsed between the initial knockdown and when the P-18 was headed for the bottom. Here's the short version:


Contributing factors: Autotiller was on and possibly prevented boat from rounding up. Sails were cleated.

The starboard locker was not a factor.

Skipper was very open about what happened. Wants others to learn from the event.

Something in common with the Chesapeake Bay sinking was that the weight in the stubby keel was not sufficient to right the boat when there is a lot of crew weight on the low side, - which is of course where it ends up in a knockdown.

Naturally I wonder if that could happen to me, what I would do in that situation and what if anything I should change in my normal habits.

I routinely sail with the cabin open though I do put the boards in if it's lively. However, it was calm on this day, - until it wasn't. I've had it drilled into me to keep sheet in hand and not cleated but I do cleat if I need to move forward. However, I don't think I'd leave a cleated main unattended if it was so windy that I wanted to drop the sail. In fact I wouldn't try to drop a filled main and would heave-to.

Even after a lot of questions and answers posted some of the details are a still little foggy to me.

I guess the overriding message is that the P-18 can get knocked down and won't right with a lot of weight on the low side. And you have very little time to act if that happens.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: Straander on Apr 27, 2023, 11:58 AM
Scary. Is heaving-to the correct thing to do in this situation as tjspiel said? It seems like it would present a lot of sail area broad to the wind and would really increase heeling.

Does the P18 not have positive buoyancy like the P165?
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: Riggerdood on Apr 27, 2023, 12:33 PM
For those not on the FB group, here's the entirety of his original account. There are currently 80 replies/comments, and in those he clarifies a few things, but this is the gist of it. Like most incidents, it wasn't any one thing, but a chain of events that led to the sinking.

Straander, apparently the 18 has little or no built in floatation.

QuoteWARNING:  as I write this, the "Cuddlefish" is covered by about 28 feet of water! I now am the "2nd known" sinking of a precision 18. (not a title that I am proud of). I can tell you what, when, and how it happened so listen closely. My wife and I were sailing back home from a weekend date using the sailboat. We were in well known waters that I travel and fish in often. the winds were so lite in the beginning that we could not make more than 3.5 mph with main and a jib sail up, so i started motor to help. while moto sailing, the wind picked up and filled the main. I cheered and cut the motor off and lifted it out of the water. sun was out and the wifey went below and put on her bathing suit to get some sun. While she was down in the cabin, I felt the boat surge and lean over....wifey asked "what was that? "Wind gust" I said. "Come on up and let me step into the cabin, I want to lower the main sail". We switched places and before I could reach up and undo the main sheet to lower it, we were hit from behind by a "wind sheer"...(a very strong wind).  I had the main sail set just off of the port side corner and the jib pulled to the starboard side. That gust hit so hard and fast that the boat started surging forward and pushed the bow to starboard which really loaded up the main sail. I would normally be setting where I could have unloaded the main by simply letting it all the way out and turning/rounding up into the wind. However, I was not in the cockpit when this happened I was in the cabin near the mast. The boat went sideways and laid over ...a knockdown. I heard my wife scream and when I pulled my self up right I saw that the mast was in the water, My wife had been thrown down and was on her back in the water, laying on the back support and the lifeline on the port side. I rushed out of the cabin area and grabbed her and helped her sit up. this put all of our combined weight on the port side. I reached out and turned the main loose at the blocks and slapped the autotiller off the rudder so if she decided to up right, she would release the water on the sail and turn up into the wind. No such luck. What I did not know was that with the mast in the water, it was acting like an anchor and the boat was now acting like a balloon on the water. the wind quickly spun the boat so that the waves were now hitting into the cockpit and the cabin. the first swell washed my wife overboard and entered the cabin thru the cabin door. The second swell knocked me off my feet and it to entered the cabin. I felt the boat settle lower in the water. the third wave pushed me out of the boat and it too entered the cabin. it was at this time that the boat began to turtle. I screamed for my wife to grab a floatation and get away from the ship. total elapsed time about 15 SECONDS!!! I grabbed a vest that was near by and swam around to the rudder and grabbed the end of it an started trying to climb up on it to help the keel upright the boat. no good as i felt the rear of the boat start sinking and the bow began to raise. elapsed time was less than  45 seconds. a gentleman drove up on us and asked if we needed 911? I hollered to him to rescue my wife. While he was getting her out of the water, I swam up to the bow of the boat which was about 3 feet out of the water and I grabbed the bow line. I know that the bow line was about 50 feet long and I started pulling it thru my hands trying to locate the tag end. I found it and immediately unbuckled my life vest and tied the bow line to the vest as a visual of wear the boat was at. elapsed time was less than 2 minutes now. It was at this time that Marine Patrol pulled up on scene asking if anyone needed medical. I must tell you that that initial gust has now turned into a howling wind coming straight down the river and the water is pushing 3-5 foot narrow rollers with whitecaps blowing off the tops (really nasty stuff as the ride back to the landing in that 32 foot parker boat was teeth breaking rough). I have given much thought about what caused this capsizing and what I could have done to avoid it. the only thing I can think of is maybe I could have had the cabin door closed... (wildlife officer said that it may have helped but the force of those waves would have probably knocked that door in anyhow. CONCLUSION: My p18 sank on the port side, not the starboard. the time from sitting upright to totally upside down was FAST, and it never happens like you imagine. There was nothing to stand on. Water was everywhere, and the life and well being took precedence over anything in, on, or about that boat. looking back I wish that I had a boat with a LOT of keel weight. Perhaps there will be another sailboat for us in the future, but the wifey has said no more for her. please keep in mind that there was only a mild wind and before I could even drop the sail muchless reef it, it was over. stay safe, stay strong. love ya, scott and rhonda.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: Quantico Frank on Apr 27, 2023, 12:38 PM
Thanks Tom for posting this. Not sure about the P18, but the P165 with standard flotation is supposed to be unsinkable according to Precision. I also, personally sail with my inflatable life vest on at all times and the cabin boards secured by default. It has to be very unusually tame out there for me to sail (at least solo) with them open. The auto tiller definitely is a risk that has to be managed just like a cleated mainsheet for sure....
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: DBthal on Apr 27, 2023, 12:41 PM
I would also want to heave-to in that situation. Easy for me to say as a Monday morning quarterback. Probably a lot tougher when everything is hitting the fan.

We all cleat the mainsheet sometimes and get periodic abrupt reminders of why that's not a good thing. I installed a ratcheting block on my P-165 this Spring to see if that helps in gusty conditions.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: tjspiel on Apr 27, 2023, 12:45 PM
Quote from: Straander on Apr 27, 2023, 11:58 AMScary. Is heaving-to the correct thing to do in this situation as tjspiel said? It seems like it would present a lot of sail area broad to the wind and would really increase heeling.

Does the P18 not have positive buoyancy like the P165?

Being hove-to is a big wind survival tactic. It's a way of keeping the boat mostly into the wind and not allowing the sails to fill completely. And typically it's just the jib that fills. The rudder (which is all the way to leeward) keeps forcing the boat back into the wind.

It's not foolproof. Shifts in wind direction can put in you in a bad place.

The P-18 does not have positive buoyancy.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: tjspiel on Apr 27, 2023, 12:48 PM
Quote from: DBthal on Apr 27, 2023, 12:41 PMI would also want to heave-to in that situation. Easy for me to say it as a Monday morning quarterback. Probably a lot tougher when everything is hitting the fan.

Yep, it's easy figure out what to do in a windless room behind a computer screen with all the time in the world. It's quite another to make all the right decisions in real time as things rapidly go South.

The scary thing about this event is how quickly things went from relatively calm winds to the P-18 ending up at the bottom of the river.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: Riggerdood on Apr 27, 2023, 09:39 PM
Agreed, and I wouldn't want to armchair quarterback either. However, in the interest of edification, IMHO it was not only having the mainsheet cleated that did them in, it was that plus having the autotiller engaged, both while on a point of sail that is already prone to an accidental gybe. Before he was able to flick it off the tiller, the AT probably had the tiller full to stbd, trying to correct for the round up, which just made things worse. The bummer about the whole thing was that if he had just stayed at the helm, let loose the mainsheet and popped the AT off at the first gust, then slowly put the tiller over to port, he would have been hove to right then and there, since he already had the jib out to stbd. As Tom says, not fool proof, but at least then in a better position to drop the main.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: Brian N. on Apr 27, 2023, 10:35 PM
Could not find the original post or replies on FB for some odd reason, so thanks for reposting here. From the details of the account it is very difficult to say that there was one particular fault, as is often the case. What is not entirely clear was the following: "I had the main sail set just off of the port side corner (starboard tack) and the jib pulled to the starboard side". Sounds like the jib was on set on the wrong side. Also, if the main was on the port side (starboard tack) he writes:" boat started surging forward and pushed the bow to starboard which really loaded up the main sail". To me it appears the boat was starting to round up. He said that it really "loaded up the main". To my understanding that is contradictory as heading up to starboard on starboard tack should have eased some pressure. Again I was not there, just a bit unclear. I guess in the end they were okay, which is most important. Lastly, I would not blame the boat as not having a heavy enough keel. One question I would like to know the answer to is did he have the board down or up, but the outcome may still have been the same (that question can be debated another time).
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: tjspiel on Apr 28, 2023, 12:45 AM
Wasn't entirely clear to me either Brian but I think Tim alluded to what was going on:

It sounds like he was headed downwind with the sails wing and wing (kind of). Except that the main was trimmed more like he was headed upwind or on a close reach. Not sure why. I think some people do that to lessen the severity of a jibe, but it makes one more likely.

Anyway, it would explain a lot. With the main set like that, a gust may have caused the boat to round up to where he was on a reach, - which would further power up the main since it would be trimmed more correctly for that point of sail. At this point the jib would likely backwind (in nasty fashion) and stop the boat from rounding any further. And of course the AT is not helping.

You could make a super abridged version of the story that reads: "Sudden change in wind intensity/direction catches skipper off guard leading to a knockdown".

Happens to many good sailers of small boats and there are always lessons to be learned.

But as an owner of a P-18 what is most concerning to me is that the boat is supposed to right itself and it didn't. So I'm very interested in why not.

Cleated sheets will do that but it sounds like he un-cleated them pretty quickly. So what I'm left with is that the ballast was not enough to overcome the weight of the mast, rigging, sails, and crew. So what should someone do in that situation? Is it just a lost cause?

Once waves started dumping water into the cabin it was game over but it should have righted itself before that (I think).
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: Brian N. on Apr 28, 2023, 10:05 AM
From the description his point of sail is unclear (broad reach?). Also was he in the process of trying to hove-to and then decided to reef? The point I was making about having the swing keel was that while it does add some weight lower down, often it is better to have some leeway in a blow. People may criticize the anemic keel of the P165 when going to windward, allowing too much leeway, but I've been out in 20 knots, and never felt in danger of going over. On the Ensign (a full keel boat, with a smaller main and huge jib) we sailed through a storm with 30 knot gusts and the boat handled like a champ, but the crew did have to work to avoid a broach, and more importantly ACTIVELY sail. Not minimizing his terrible experience, but too many things all seem questionable.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: tjspiel on Apr 28, 2023, 11:18 AM
Quote from: Brian N. on Apr 28, 2023, 10:05 AMFrom the description his point of sail is unclear (broad reach?). Also was he in the process of trying to hove-to and then decided to reef? The point I was making about having the swing keel was that while it does add some weight lower down, often it is better to have some leeway in a blow. People may criticize the anemic keel of the P165 when going to windward, allowing too much leeway, but I've been out in 20 knots, and never felt in danger of going over. On the Ensign (a full keel boat, with a smaller main and huge jib) we sailed through a storm with 30 knot gusts and the boat handled like a champ, but the crew did have to work to avoid a broach, and more importantly ACTIVELY sail. Not minimizing his terrible experience, but too many things all seem questionable.


Oh yeah, I should explain that. The P18 centerboard is just a centerboard. There's no significant amount of mass to it, - just enough to keep it down. The weight is all in the stubby keel. I wouldn't be surprised if the centerboard swings back up into the keel in a knockdown. There's nothing to lock it in the down position. It's designed to swing up if you hit anything.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: Straander on Apr 28, 2023, 02:05 PM
Quote from: tjspiel on Apr 28, 2023, 12:45 AMIt sounds like he was headed downwind with the sails wing and wing (kind of). Except that the main was trimmed more like he was headed upwind or on a close reach. Not sure why. I think some people do that to lessen the severity of a jibe, but it makes one more likely.

I have done exactly that to both lessen the severity of a jibe, and to simply depower the boat when going downwind when it picks up to much. Read that in an article somewhere.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: FortyFour on Apr 28, 2023, 04:24 PM
I sail a P-18.  First learned on a Bullseye, which has relatively similar ballast profile to the Ensign. The keel of the Ensign alone displaces the weight my whole boat. When I got my Precision, someone called it a dinghy with a cabin. I'm maybe in denial about that, but do see the point how tender a boat it is.

Not saying this was the case here, but I always figure sailing by the lee is just asking for a smackdown...How many of you rig preventers?
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: tjspiel on Apr 28, 2023, 05:42 PM
I sail on small lake 90% of the time and am never on a particular course or point of sail for very long. So I'd be undoing any preventer constantly.

That said I avoid sailing dead down wind (or by the lee) like the plague. I'm pretty comfortable with controlled jibes and not any less inclined to jibe vs tack in moderate wind. My other sailboat is an inflatable cat that tacks poorly.

But sailing downwind makes me stay pretty attentive since my Laser days. Those boats were fun but not at all stable going down wind.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: johnandcandace on Apr 28, 2023, 06:31 PM
Thank you for posting this Facebook article. Wow what a story. Thank goodness there were rescue boats close. Where we sail, there is usually no one else out. We would be swimming to shore. Most people agree that Precisions are great boats, but relatively tender. When we bought our P18, we reviewed fifteen Trailer-Sailor articles from owners who added ballast, including Tom Scott. Tom Scott first tested his P18's righting ability and found it would barely right from a knockdown in still water. He added some permanent lead and some removable lead. The most convincing arguments for adding ballast were by Bob Mendes, a Dillon Lake, CO sailor. We added 100# of lead in our forward keel cavity. We're glad we did. However, I don't believe that 100# of extra lead would have prevented the Facebook knockdown or sinking. If anyone is interested in the fifteen TS ballast articles, I copied them into a Word document along with photos of our added lead. I can email that doc to you. I'm not yet skilled at using this new website so I will just list my email here. jcmanfredi@outlook.com. Thanks again for the Facebook posting.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: Captain Kidd on Apr 29, 2023, 08:56 AM
I'm not a Precision owner but do sail an 18.5 Hunter. This story sure reminds us to be ever vigilant. Thanks for posting.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: Brian N. on Apr 29, 2023, 10:40 AM
Right - there have been numerous discussions and many articles written about adding ballast (lead, water ballast, even concrete) and righting moment to small sailboats. One recently in SCA focused on moveable water ballast was very informative. From what I gather, even 100# of lead in the bilge is not nearly as effective as a crew member sitting on the windward rail, and static weight in the bilge cannot be adjusted. Start adding excessive amounts and the boat is sailing off her designed lines. In the end, small boats (and even larger ones) are vulnerable to knockdown. Sometimes quick action by skipper and crew can prevent this, other times the boat is just overwhelmed. Agreed, they were lucky other boats were nearby to aid rescue. How many of us are in shape to swim 1/2 mile (or more) to shore in poor conditions? On a personal note, during the summer I swim 1/2 mile nearly every day in a pool, and it's not easy. Now consider water temperature, conditions, and clothing.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: DBthal on Apr 29, 2023, 02:46 PM
QuotePosted by Brian N.  - Today at 10:40 AM
How many of us are in shape to swim 1/2 mile (or more) to shore in poor conditions? ......... Now consider water temperature, conditions, and clothing.

I couldn't do a survival swim anymore. Did one once, 3/4 mile when a sailboard blew away from me in high wind & chop. Not easy and I was wearing a full wetsuit. That was 30 years ago...

Always wear my PFD with a rescue knife, small air horn, aerial flare, & PLB. I appreciate the P-165's floatation which may keep the hull on the surface in a severe knockdown.

Just need to do whatever we can to minimize the risk.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: Brian N. on Apr 29, 2023, 05:26 PM
I do question the guy's decision to ditch his life vest! I'll say 90% of the time I wear mine, and always when actively sailing. Even strong swimmers can become exhausted, and in the conditions as he described it makes no sense. Again not minimizing his experience but some things don't add up correctly.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: Straander on May 01, 2023, 12:37 PM
Learning lots of new things in this thread.  :o

What is "sailing by the lee?"

what are good reasons to avoid going DDW? I end up doing that all the time.

Quote from: tjspiel on Apr 28, 2023, 05:42 PMI sail on small lake 90% of the time and am never on a particular course or point of sail for very long. So I'd be undoing any preventer constantly.

That said I avoid sailing dead down wind (or by the lee) like the plague. I'm pretty comfortable with controlled jibes and not any less inclined to jibe vs tack in moderate wind. My other sailboat is an inflatable cat that tacks poorly.

But sailing downwind makes me stay pretty attentive since my Laser days. Those boats were fun but not at all stable going down wind.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: tjspiel on May 01, 2023, 12:53 PM
"Sailing By the Lee" - sailing downwind with the wind coming over the leeward side of the boat.

It's passed DDW. On cat rigged boats there can be some advantages of doing this but it's a racing thing, not a cruising thing. Obviously you need to be careful.

90% of the sailing I do is on inland lakes with features that make wind shifts a regular occurrence. So DDW one second might mean an unintentional jibe a second later.

And it tends to be somewhat unstable when it's windy.

This might be helpful:

https://sailzing.com/off-wind-balance/

"Off-wind capsizes occur because the boat is harder to balance against changes, especially when going dead downwind in a breeze. "

But I should qualify my statement. I don't avoid DDW when the winds are super light.

When I was a youngster sailing Lasers, capsizes were part of the experience and not a big deal. But a downwind capsize in a Laser was the only time a boat actually sailed away from me. I was sailing downwind and it started to "Death Roll" in Laser terms. With the sail off to starboard, it rolled to port violently, throwing me in the water.

It capsized to port in that the mast landed in the water but the clue of the sail was pointed straight to the sky and the boat was still headed down wind. So off it went, sail full while laying on its side, mast skipping through the water. Eventually the mast dragging caused it to turn enough that the the sail dropped so I could catch it. Was tired when I got there though. :)

Luckily it didn't sail very fast or very far like that but Lasers float pretty high and are pretty stable on their sides
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: Quantico Frank on May 01, 2023, 07:07 PM
That, to me, begs an interesting question. What does the boat do if a single-handed sailor falls overboard while underway? I guess it depends somewhat on the point of sail?
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: tjspiel on May 01, 2023, 10:17 PM
Quote from: Quantico Frank on May 01, 2023, 07:07 PMThat, to me, begs an interesting question. What does the boat do if a single-handed sailor falls overboard while underway? I guess it depends somewhat on the point of sail?

If there's an autopilot or tiller lock it may go until either someone catches it or it runs aground. That's why some folks tether themselves to the boat.

My boat on my lake? If the Bungee 2000 auto-tiller (as Brian titled his) holds up, the boat will go until it gets stuck in the mud or sand and I may have a bit of bike ride to retrieve it after I swim to shore.  Hopefully I'm not headed back to the buoy field when it happens or there could be some crunching fiberglass.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: DBthal on May 02, 2023, 12:28 PM
Video on this topic from our friendly member firefighterdave.

https://youtu.be/-BYJR11H_p0
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: epic1969 on May 08, 2023, 03:06 PM
Thanks for posting FB incident! It's easy to armchair quarterback things like this.

Sometimes freak things happen. I was windsurfing on Lake Erie a couple years ago 10-15kts beautiful conditions I was having so much fun I wasn't looking at the wall of black clouds quickly approaching from the west I headed for the closest shore and pulled my board up on the beach and 60-75Kt winds hit (it was a Great Lakes Derrico(sp?)) it was the most awesome weather event I have seen. It was over in 15 minutes.

I have owned 6 sailboats including a P18 and as large as a 23' Santana @1000# keel. All of these boats would have been toast!

Sailing (this season with my new to me Montgomery 17)on Erie I keep a close eye on the weather and probably would have had 15-20 minutes heads up monitoring NOAA I think about what Id do if I was out 5-10 miles offshore and another one hit. Drop sails, secure deck. Deploy properly sized sea-anchor (for your boat) secure all openings (companion way drop boards etc) Pray!!!

I installed 80# additional of ballast in the P18, triple reef main, I never sailed  it without the extra 80# lead (also sealed cockpit locker) It is a great preforming boat that demands good technique in high winds. I had it out in 28Kts and was in total control with attentive control and 3rd reef. She hove-too well also at those wind speeds. For a new sailor on inland lakes (not Great Lakes until they get some miles under there belts) the P18 is a fine boat.

To wrap this up! Preliminarily it looks like a freak event which might have had a different outcome if companion way was sealed shut. Don't know if cockpit locker was sealed or not but if not that didn't help situation! BIg cockpit drains when running in big water.
Title: Re: On Facebook Group: wind shear, waves sink P-18. Owner gives first hand account
Post by: talbot on May 09, 2023, 05:16 PM
In all the discussion, no one has mentioned the role of local knowledge. On the Oregon coast, the locals all know that in the summer the afternoon north wind goes from dead calm to throwing pebbles in a matter of seconds. My introduction to the phenomenon was on the low side of a capsizing Day Sailer. Rounding up requires that the keel/CB is still in the water. Easing the main requires that the boom isn't already in the water. My Ds only came up because I managed to free the jib. It sounds like the lost P18 was run over by the same kind of truck. All of the possible remedies suggested here and on FB come down to maintaining a certain level of paranoia, particularly on unfamiliar waters or those where you know you can't see what's going to hit you.