Cape Verde Season

[Riley Smith]

Just because NOAA lowered the number of hurricanes doesn't mean there AREN'T going to be any. I'm sort of critical of those folks for various reasons. Don't get me wrong, they are doing a super job of predictions in the last few years as far as paths and locations are concerned. Maybe their strength analysis could be a little closer and "official" strength models need some finessing. And did you know that any commercial product that doesn't agree with the "official" stuff leaves you open to litigation? At any rate, the Bay of Campeche has slowed dramatically and the Cape Verde Island have stepped to the forefront. That first one, Arthur, was a doozie in certain places with rainfall. And then Bertha came through from the east and was all discombobulated. The tornado threat was out in the middle of the Gulf and the wind was along the shore!! Not a bad storm at all but surprising in how it manifested.



https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=taw&band=EXTENT3&length=24

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[pgandw]

I finally found the NOAA forecasts I like. These are actually done by a real weather forecaster that looks at the data and the various models and how they are converging or diverging. These forecasts cover Eastern North Carolina, and are very similar to the weather briefings I would get before each flight when I was flying helicopters. The NOAA forecast is more a broad perspective, then I use weather.com for the hourly and radar picture. NOAA updates the forecast 2-3 times a day.

Here's the link I use, I'm sure there is a similar forecast for your area/region. Eastern NC NOAA. The link to the forecast discussion is half way down on the right side of the web page. I'm sure you can figure out how to get the right location for your forecast.

Unlike the Gulf, our thunderstorms are not on a clock schedule. Fronts pass through, stall out, or reverse themselves overhead. We're just too close to Cape Hatteras - where all good storms go to die.

Fred W

[Riley Smith]

I sure like Ryan Hall Y'all when the chips are down. I think he's got a YouTube channel but he'll have storm chasers in an active situation. You're correct on the clock schedule for our thunderstorms, but I might caution that is only during the summer. Other seasons can be very unpredictable. As it is now, if you plan on boating in the afternoon, it's pretty much like playing Russian roulette with a thunderstorm     There might not be a drops fall from the sky and you might ALSO almost drown on dry land. It just depends. You are DEFINITELY in danger of dehydration and heat stroke.