Hurricane Predictions . . . .

[Charles Brennan]

Just to remind everyone once again of my opinions on weather prognostications:

Under the most rigorously calculated and precisely measured scientific parameters involving:
Barometric Pressure
Tides
Winds aloft
Coastal Topography
Humidity
Magnetic course heading
Phase of the moon
Upper atmosphere steering currents
El Niño
La Niña
Ocean surface water temps and
Land temps

And in addition to using all the available resources of land-based meteorological stations, predictive super-computers, AI computerized models, data sonobuoys, GOES-8 satellite imaging, Hurricane Hunter planes and Jim Cantores' opinion:
The Whirly-Girl will go where she damn'ed well pleases.

GEEZE!! 
Already halfway through the hurricane snacks and it's not even here, yet!! 

Charles Brennan

[Spot]

Just to remind everyone once again of my opinions on weather prognostications:

Under the most rigorously calculated and precisely measured scientific parameters involving:
Barometric Pressure
Tides
Winds aloft
Coastal Topography
Humidity
Magnetic course heading
Phase of the moon
Upper atmosphere steering currents
El Niño
La Niña
Ocean surface water temps and
Land temps

And in addition to using all the available resources of land-based meteorological stations, predictive super-computers, AI computerized models, data sonobuoys, GOES-8 satellite imaging, Hurricane Hunter planes and Jim Cantores' opinion:
The Whirly-Girl will go where she damn'ed well pleases.

GEEZE!! 
Already halfway through the hurricane snacks and it's not even here, yet!! 

Charles Brennan

Sorry about the snacks. Stay safe and we'll be awaiting word from the other side.

[jtweigandt]

Havn't checked in here in a long time.  Life intervened, so the boat's been dry 2 years plus.
You left out one hurricane precursor... John goes on vacation.  They can't pin the big ones on me, but we did have a mild deviation in our return flight to skirt some of the effects of Francine.

Stay safe, we worry up here when we hear you guys use phrases like.. "well at least the winds dropped to 100 before they got to us" and that's supposed to be good news.

[Charles Brennan]

Spot, Not to worry: Hurricane snacks have been replenished!! 
Just now getting rains and light gusts.
Gonna be a long boring day, tomorrow.
(If we're lucky!)

Charles Brennan

[Norm L.]

As all of us who have that experience, I'm greatly concerned about the situation.

NOAA Discussion 18 says shear will help but not enough. Wobble could be more than the usual 20-30 miles and for you in the northern area, there will be a stronger wind area. You being further away is good but this bit about stronger north section is not.
And it will still be a hurricane as it exits on the east coast.

[Wayne Howard]

This buoy was run over by Helene and it looks like Milton is going to hit it also.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

Currently seeing 35 knots sustained and 13.5 foot seas.

[Riley Smith]

Here's to Snickers!!! Hoping this drier air over us is heading your way. I could see the condensation boundary out on the water when it was over the Yucatan, and again this morning when it had moved closer to FL. Am glad I don't have a Tesla. Tried  to post a pic of those clouds but it says the directory is full. Wind here is out of the NE @ 10 and steady, so maybe it's helping deflate it some.

[Jim B., CD-25]

Even in the desert, I still get that feeling of foreboding in the pit of my stomach when the networks break into normal programming - this time with another update on Milton.  It is good to know that Charles is north of where the most impact will be, but this one ramped up from a 2 to a 5 in ONE DAY... unpredictable is an understatement.

Those of us who have lived in a hurricane zone (past tense for me) know about watching one of these things grow and thinking "Somebody is gonna get it"... you hope it isn't you, you hope it isn't someone you care about, but it's gonna be someone.  There is often some gallows humor, but that is generally to hide that feeling of dread.

We had enough "close calls" where the storm took a different path to know that the predictions are just "best guesses."  So, an overabundance of caution.  And wishing safety for all those in Milton's path.

[Doug SC]

I have mostly cleaned up the yard here in SC from Helene. A pulled back muscle put an end to that. Have one down tree to cut up. It's not a big one. Several 100' Loblolly Pines went down at the sailing club. The buildings were spared but several boats were totaled. Mine were OK. We still don't have cable or internet restored after 2 weeks. Family members in Asheville area were spared damage.

I did manage to sail yesterday in good wind. Greg Fisher was at the club delivering full sets of new sails for two of our Flying Scot sailors. He is the former coach for the college of Charleston sailing team. He led them to seven national championships. He graced us with a day of coaching for both our one design fleets. I picked up several valuable sail trim tips. I hope they well help improve our sailing.

When growing up in FL I liked hurricanes as they got us out of school. These days my feelings are very different about hurricanes. I feel for all those folks that built on the coast. Taking two hits in two weeks it's terrible. I  hope you came through this  OK CB. Milton was a monster.

[Norm L.]

Doug, that is good to hear that you are okay and for the most part many that you know. That was a horrendous storm surprising all.
Maybe we should all buy stock in the makers of generators, chain saws, rakes and oil lamps.
I did send donations to two woman's shelters in Ashville. It is also how great restaurants have become. Putting what they have left (and anything in their freezers and fridges) to provide food for residents and rescuers.

[Doug SC]

Norm, for about the last 10 years before retiring I worked with my brother in law a plumbing contractor who lives near Marshall, NC. We worked all over the Asheville area. We did some plumbing jobs in the Asheville arts district that was flooded so badly and often bought supplies in Marshall when working near there. Did several jobs on big homes in Biltmore Estates. Worked in Swannanoa and Fairview. All over the area mostly on new construction. It is upsetting to see the extent of destruction, loss of life, and people who have lost everything. It really hits home when you know people and places that are impacted by tragedies like this. I know many here have had similar experiences.

[Norm L.]

So true Doug.
People are aware of the front-page crushed homes and flooded streets. If you've experienced one you know the little miserable parts. Losing power for 2-3 days means you dump all the food in the fridge and freezer. If you evacuated and came back a week later the smell is unbelievably bad. A nasty job to clean up. And all of that has to be hauled somewhere. A few feet of water in the house can kill the fridge. There will be a big run on kitchen appliances. And cars.

If you get your coffee via pods, the Keurig regional warehouse got wiped. It wasn't just rising water but the force of the overflowing nearby river knocked over the pallet stacks 12' high. They have lost everything and a claim at around $8mm. Our Lloyds guy was there the day after. How he got there I didn't ask.

[Wayne Howard]

we were lucky the last time the house south of Houston lost power. Fired up the propane powered generator and turned off the house A/C because the generator couldn't run it. The 100 gallon tank of propane kept the lights on until Houston Loot and Plunder could repair the lines.

[Riley Smith]

Knock on wood, we've not lost power in a long time. And that was a car taking out a pole. Life without electricity sucks. More than Jim B's Cold Sux. At least when you're cold you can put on some more clothes. There is a point where you have reached all you can take off legally. It is SO HUMID here, a bath was the only solution to get comfortable for a very short time. I feel for 'em.

[Frank B.]

Electric Power.....In Mexico Beach in 2018 after Michael there was none and no infrastructure left to have any.  But I got to watch "the dance" a most fascinating thing, line trucks from a number of different states drilling holes for poles, setting poles, securing poles, pulling line, securing line, and on and on.  Each truck had a specific task and they just ran down highway 98 in perfect choreography. Truly amazing the number of miles per day they could restore.