OK, Which one of you jokers taped the bullseye on Riley Smith?

[Wayne Howard]

That was not nice.   Although it is "supposed" to hit cooler water and deteriorate before landfall.


The only way to tell if the weatherman is lying is if his lips are moving. 

[Riley Smith]

I'm praying for cooler air, myself. Those people in OK are getting some bad weather right now. And naturally it has been blowing a gale for three days, although that meant we DID manage to get hit dead center by one of those sailing showers coming off the gulf for about 3-4 minutes of a downpour. We NEED anything we can get. The October weather is gone.

[Riley Smith]

Besides....

The active weather off Cuba is a long way from here. Many things can happen, including the temperature dropping after that comma-tailed front that is waking Houston up to thunder goes past. That best case scenario. That's the finish line for this thing maybe, and the season as a whole. If that comma don't stall today and makes it past us, maybe we'll be ok. I'm tired of sweating so let it come. We need the rain. You gotta consider the NHC is in the public relations business and so are all those OTHER weather prognosticators. It's best for them to keep a buzz going, all things considered. You can actually SEE it on their projection because of that cone of UNCERTAINITY.

It's still blowing a gale here, although not right at dawn. There was  clear water for a while as the blue water came in close, but it's all stirred up no again. Sucker weather...nice early, and blow
ing like stink in the afternoon. Clammy and damp. Tornado weather. Some beach time is coming though. I hope it's not spent clearing shoreline.

[Wayne Howard]

It came through here last night. Nearly continuous lightning and thunder then torrential downpours. We picked up a couple of inches of rain. But yesterday morning's temp was 76 and today's is 57. YAY. We never got a tornado watch but I was expecting the NWS to issue one for here.

[Noemi - Ensenada 20]

Of COURSE the NHC is ONLY warning people because they want people to watch/listen to them.  They couldn't POSSIBLY be trying to make sure people know what's coming.   

[Riley Smith]

Still, there is some grandstanding. Not in a blaring, glitz way, but more along the lines of a staid govt agency. That I might add, does a very good job considering what difficulties they face. As far as timing, and all that other stuff that has to be considered when disseminating information to people. Tax money WELL spent. I remember back in the days when they had piston powered airplanes penetrating the eye and read about them tearing the radar apart and replacing tubes to get back out of the eye. They've come a long way.

 And get it to the people too. How do THEY perceive that which is believed is going to happen? If you've got something that is going to root the telephone poles up it's pretty important to be adept at exactly explaining WHAT is going to happen. Yes, a pretty thorny problem to be done well and they DO it well. Well enough that if you deviate from THEIR predictions and disseminate THAT information, then YOU are liable.

There is always room for improvement though. I wish their storm surge predictions were MUCH better. Yeah, and no doubt that's a magnificent problem that keeps those Crays hot. Wind speed is only part of the equation. What is the WATER going to do?

And so that thing is out there wandering around on the water. Headed in my and a bunch of other people's general direction. It's still hot here and powder dry, no appreciable rain unless you catch one of the showers that have been sporadically sailing in off the Gulf. That last about 3 minutes. I'm beginning to believe that it'll take a hurricane to break the drought. Me and the chainsaw have become friends. I've got an electric battery-powered one and it is the cat's meow. We'll have a big bonfire if and when the rain ever makes it possible to light a fire.

 

[Norm L.]

Reading the analysis and below that the timeline of wind strength is great. Match that with the cone projection and follow up with buoy reading.

In the past 5 years they have admitted they didn't have it close enough on storm surge. They have tried new programs and their illustrations are getting closer.

While we can get a November hurricane talk to those up north who have lived through an Easter and an occasional snowstorm. Admittedly getting rare.

[Riley Smith]

See! That cone moved away!!! Yay! We've got some rain out of the deal too. Not enough but some.

[Frank B.]

Never seen one do this before.  A tight loop mid gulf then a fizzle out.  Must be a November thing. 

[Riley Smith]

I GOT MY EYEBALL ON HIM! Still sprinkling here, humid and dreary. But not bad considering all the snow my son is dealing with in NM. Crazy weather.  SURE it ain't HARP.

[Riley Smith]

The rain is falling this morning before daylight. (Yes, I get up early). It has sprinkled off and on for several days as Rafael sat out on the gulf and finally dissipated. Hardly measurable but each drop was important because there has been the usual October drought and everything was powder dry. It's still warm and muggy though, and I'm watching the last bit of Rafael on satellite being consumed by unfriendly weather conditions. And glad to see the rain. Wildfire is a real threat here and the dry conditions were prime time for it.

It appears as though this rain won't affect the river level too much, since most of it fell along the coast and because of the dry conditions. The deluges upstate are what make the salinity go down and drive the saltwater fish from the marshes of the river. The big change is coming though and if you can believe it rain is predicted all week. Yesterday I had to go to the beach to get a big mixing bowl that Sonya uses for making dressing and of course I took a few minutes right at sundown to fish. I got nothing but little bites and I wouldn't let them take the big top-water lure I was fishing. I didn't want babies but would have taken a decent trout or redfish.

And so the threat of a hurricane has passed once again. You get used to it living on this coast. The satellite is always the first stop of the morning internet scan. We've made it once more without a storm here and I'm thankful. Now, after the rain, I can burn my debris pile. After I fix the SECOND water leak we've discovered in the house. We are right in the middle of covering the hole where the first one was! Gilda was right; it's ALWAYS something. (Some of you will remember when SNL was actually funny).